Also sprach Dominik Kubla:
} On Wed, Jan 05, 2000 at 05:13:00PM -0600, Bill Wendling wrote:
}
} > My main point was that 38 years is a LONG TIME in the computer industry.
} > Are you still using Wordperfect 5.1 on a 386 DOS machine at 40 MHz? It
} > requires much less energy than the Windows boxen running at 200+MHz and
} > it has the added feature that secretaries really liked it and the Windows
} > version of the same product sucked (from what I understand). That was 10
} > years ago...
}
} But your are completely missing the point! What chip is in your cell phone?
} Most likely an ARM or Mips. 32bits. What chip is used in Fords electronic
} motor control? PPC4xx. 32bits. What chip is used in the german d-box (DVB
} settop box)? M68323 with the next generation going for PPC4xx. Still 32bits.
}
} Now look at the Cobalt Qube and Raq systems, those are the systems you will
} see more and more, not the allround-PC. It's the appliance market which is
} the future, not the good old computer market. And there power consumption
} and price count, not peak-performance.
}
I hope I'm not missing the point. But let's put things into perspective:
The computing industry has been around since World War II when
the US spent tons to build computers to break German code. (I
know about Babbage, I'm talking about modern computing devices).
So, that gives us, roughly, 50 years.
Since then, we have gone from monster machines which occupied
whole buildings to fast computers which fit in the palm of your
hand.
In the last 30 years alone we have seen the advent of home
computers and embedded devices. In that time, they have become
more and more powerful and use less and less energy.
So, I'm simply saying that, while looking into my crystal ball, the vast
majority of people in 2038 will be running 64-bit machines and that OS
support for 32-bit machines will hold the similar facination that support
for 16-bit machines does today.
Support for embedded systems is another matter. From what I understand
about embedded systems (which isn't all that great yet), you need a
special OS for them. If an ES needs to tell the time after 2038 and is
still running a 32-bit processor, then perhaps they should patch the
kernel themselves or recalculate the epoch (which has been suggested
before)?
} > Sure, you could run your web server/widget on an ancient 32 bit machine
} > in 2038, but you won't be able to get support for that machine and it
} > will seem all but useless.
}
} And for most purposes these servers will be powerful enough and as
} long as the customers are content with those system's performance, there
} will be people offering support for them.
There are people offering support for [234]86s?
} Why is Intel still investing in
} the StrongARM platform (which will deliver 600 MIPS on 1 Watt of power
} consumption in the next generation if what i have read is true)? Because
} nobody with a working brain would put an Itanium in a cell phone or motor
} control or palm pad or IP phone or ... You name it and it will use 32bit
} embedded controllers in 99% of the time (unless an 8 or 16bit controller
} is enough which still are around and dead cheap!)
}
} > with what does the job. They are interested in fast, sexy hardware and
} > cool apps with lots of eye candy. Not that that's bad or anything.
}
} That is not true. Most of the people i know are content using 5 year old
} hardware and 5 year old software as long as that combo gets the job done.
} And most of the time it does.
}
And I too have a computer which is 3+ years old. But I'm not kidding
myself in believing that it will fill my needs for the future.
Bill
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